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Clodiense vs Caldiero Terme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Clodiense
Clodiense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
4/30/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 33Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Clodiense44%
×Draw28%
Caldiero Terme28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clodiense
1.34
Caldiero Terme
1.00

Clodiense creates 34% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 47 away

creates per match

Clodiense
1.49
Caldiero Terme
1.34

allows per match

Clodiense
0.65
Caldiero Terme
1.19

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par
Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Caldiero Terme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw
72%
Clodiense or Caldiero Terme
72%
Draw or Caldiero Terme
56%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+
21%
Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals
74%
Clodiense 2+ goals
39%
Clodiense 3+ goals
15%
Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
63%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
26%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)
61%
Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Clodiense scores more
44%
level
28%
Caldiero Terme scores more
28%

Clodiense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Clodiense 0–0 Caldiero Terme

Clodiense and Caldiero Terme drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin in Chioggia.