Clodiense 2–1 Atletico Castegnato: Result & Stats

Clodiense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Castegnato

A. Burraci 45'

G. Aliu 42'

M. Pesenti 90+15'

9/24/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 3Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Clodiense55%

×Draw25%

Atletico Castegnato20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClodienseExpected goals in this matchAtletico Castegnato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.85

Clodiense

1.60

Atletico Castegnato

0.85

Clodiense creates 88% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

1.49

creates per match

1.06

0.65

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Clodiense

1.49

Atletico Castegnato

1.06

allows per match

Clodiense

0.65

Atletico Castegnato

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Atletico Castegnato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw

80%

Clodiense or Atletico Castegnato

75%

Draw or Atletico Castegnato

45%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+

29%

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals

80%

Clodiense 2+ goals

47%

Clodiense 3+ goals

22%

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals

57%

Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals

21%

Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)

73%

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Clodiense scores more

55%

level

25%

Atletico Castegnato scores more

20%

Clodiense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

G. Aliu

45'

A. Burraci

90+15'

M. Pesenti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff