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Clodiense vs Adriese — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Clodiense
Clodiense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Adriese
Adriese
4/26/2026Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 33Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Clodiense47%
×Draw27%
Adriese27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clodiense
1.43
Adriese
1.01

Clodiense creates 42% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 101 away

creates per match

Clodiense
1.49
Adriese
1.36

allows per match

Clodiense
0.65
Adriese
1.36

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par
Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Adriese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw
73%
Clodiense or Adriese
73%
Draw or Adriese
53%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+
23%
Adriese wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals
76%
Clodiense 2+ goals
42%
Clodiense 3+ goals
17%
Adriese 1+ goals
64%
Adriese 2+ goals
27%
Adriese 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)
64%
Adriese (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Adriese attack 1.36 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Clodiense scores more
47%
level
27%
Adriese scores more
27%

Clodiense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Clodiense 2–1 Adriese

Clodiense beat Adriese 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Aldo e Dino Ballarin in Chioggia.