Cliftonville W 1–1 Sligo Rovers W: Result & Stats

Cliftonville W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sligo Rovers W

D. Maxwell 24'

E. Doherty 25'

7/1/2023

All-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 3Solitude

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cliftonville W60%

×Draw22%

Sligo Rovers W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cliftonville WExpected goals in this matchSligo Rovers W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.97

Cliftonville W

1.94

Sligo Rovers W

0.97

Cliftonville W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.22

creates per match

0.83

1.11

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Cliftonville W

1.22

Sligo Rovers W

0.83

allows per match

Cliftonville W

1.11

Sligo Rovers W

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cliftonville W+0.00on par

Sligo Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cliftonville W ↓

Sligo Rovers W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cliftonville W or draw

82%

Cliftonville W or Sligo Rovers W

78%

Draw or Sligo Rovers W

40%

Winning margin

Cliftonville W wins by 2+

36%

Sligo Rovers W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cliftonville W 1+ goals

86%

Cliftonville W 2+ goals

58%

Cliftonville W 3+ goals

30%

Sligo Rovers W 1+ goals

62%

Sligo Rovers W 2+ goals

25%

Sligo Rovers W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cliftonville W (draw refunded)

76%

Sligo Rovers W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cliftonville W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Sligo Rovers W away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cliftonville W attack 1.22 + Sligo Rovers W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sligo Rovers W attack 0.83 + Cliftonville W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cliftonville W scores more

60%

level

22%

Sligo Rovers W scores more

18%

Cliftonville W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cliftonville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

D. Maxwell

25'

E. Doherty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff