Cliftonville W 2–1 Linfield W: Result & Stats

Cliftonville W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Linfield W

M. Callaghan 44'

T. Lynch 5'

R. Breen 27'

9/26/2025

Premiership Women · Championship Round - 1Solitude

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cliftonville W39%

×Draw19%

Linfield W42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cliftonville WExpected goals in this matchLinfield W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

2.59

Cliftonville W

2.50

Linfield W

2.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

4.00

creates per match

4.43

0.76

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cliftonville W

4.00

Linfield W

4.43

allows per match

Cliftonville W

0.76

Linfield W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cliftonville W+0.00on par

Linfield W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cliftonville W ↓

Linfield W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Cliftonville W or draw

58%

Cliftonville W or Linfield W

81%

Draw or Linfield W

61%

Winning margin

Cliftonville W wins by 2+

23%

Linfield W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Cliftonville W 1+ goals

92%

Cliftonville W 2+ goals

71%

Cliftonville W 3+ goals

45%

Linfield W 1+ goals

92%

Linfield W 2+ goals

73%

Linfield W 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Cliftonville W (draw refunded)

48%

Linfield W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cliftonville W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Linfield W away — creates 4.43, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cliftonville W attack 4.00 + Linfield W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Linfield W attack 4.43 + Cliftonville W defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cliftonville W scores more

39%

level

19%

Linfield W scores more

42%

Linfield W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

T. Lynch

27'

R. Breen

44'

M. Callaghan

Cliftonville

Linfield

Manager: J. McGrady

Manager: P. Lewis