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Cliftonville W vs Larne W — Premiership Women 2026

Cliftonville W
Cliftonville W
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Larne W
Larne W
C. Devine 86', 18'
T. Lynch 81'
C. McGuinness 59'
M. Callaghan 48'
N. Mclaughlin 30'
F. Morgan 7'
K. McGuinness 4'
6/20/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 6Solitude

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cliftonville W90%
×Draw7%
Larne W3%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cliftonville W
4.10
Larne W
0.77

Cliftonville W creates 432% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cliftonville W
4.00
Larne W
0.67

allows per match

Cliftonville W
0.87
Larne W
4.20

finishing

Cliftonville W+0.00on par
Larne W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cliftonville W ↓

Larne W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Cliftonville W or draw
97%
Cliftonville W or Larne W
93%
Draw or Larne W
10%

Winning margin

Cliftonville W wins by 2+
77%
Larne W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Cliftonville W 1+ goals
98%
Cliftonville W 2+ goals
90%
Cliftonville W 3+ goals
75%
Larne W 1+ goals
54%
Larne W 2+ goals
18%
Larne W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cliftonville W (draw refunded)
96%
Larne W (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cliftonville W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Larne W away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cliftonville W attack 4.00 + Larne W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 4.10

Larne W attack 0.67 + Cliftonville W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Cliftonville W scores more
90%
level
7%
Larne W scores more
3%

Cliftonville W at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Cliftonville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
K. McGuinness
7'
F. Morgan
18'
C. Devine
30'
N. Mclaughlin
48'
M. Callaghan
59'
C. McGuinness
81'
T. Lynch
86'
C. Devine

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Cliftonville W 8–0 Larne W

Cliftonville W beat Larne W 8-0 in Premiership Women on June 20, 2025.

Goals: K. McGuinness (4'), F. Morgan (7'), C. Devine (18', 86'), N. Mclaughlin (30'), M. Callaghan (48'), C. McGuinness (59'), T. Lynch (81').

The match was played at Solitude in Belfast.