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Cliftonville W vs Derry City W — Premiership Women 2026

Cliftonville W
Cliftonville W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Derry City W
Derry City W
A. O'Neill 73' (pen)
K. Burrows 50'
M. Callaghan 45'
8/29/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 12Solitude

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cliftonville W81%
×Draw11%
Derry City W8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cliftonville W
3.55
Derry City W
1.08

Cliftonville W creates 229% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cliftonville W
4.00
Derry City W
1.40

allows per match

Cliftonville W
0.76
Derry City W
3.10

finishing

Cliftonville W+0.00on par
Derry City W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cliftonville W ↓

Derry City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Cliftonville W or draw
92%
Cliftonville W or Derry City W
89%
Draw or Derry City W
19%

Winning margin

Cliftonville W wins by 2+
64%
Derry City W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cliftonville W 1+ goals
97%
Cliftonville W 2+ goals
86%
Cliftonville W 3+ goals
67%
Derry City W 1+ goals
66%
Derry City W 2+ goals
29%
Derry City W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cliftonville W (draw refunded)
91%
Derry City W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cliftonville W at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Derry City W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cliftonville W attack 4.00 + Derry City W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 3.55

Derry City W attack 1.40 + Cliftonville W defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Cliftonville W scores more
81%
level
11%
Derry City W scores more
8%

Cliftonville W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Cliftonville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
M. Callaghan
50'
K. Burrows
73'
A. O'NeillPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Cliftonville W 3–0 Derry City W

Cliftonville W beat Derry City W 3-0 in Premiership Women on August 29, 2025.

Goals: M. Callaghan (45'), K. Burrows (50'), A. O'Neill (73' pen).

The match was played at Solitude in Belfast.