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Cliftonville FC vs Newington Youth — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cliftonville FC
Cliftonville FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cliftonville FC66%
×Draw17%
Newington Youth17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cliftonville FC
2.62
Newington Youth
1.28

Cliftonville FC creates 105% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Cliftonville FC
2.83
Newington Youth
1.40

allows per match

Cliftonville FC
1.17
Newington Youth
2.40

finishing

Cliftonville FC+0.00on par
Newington Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cliftonville FC ↓

Newington Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Cliftonville FC or draw
83%
Cliftonville FC or Newington Youth
83%
Draw or Newington Youth
34%

Winning margin

Cliftonville FC wins by 2+
44%
Newington Youth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cliftonville FC 1+ goals
93%
Cliftonville FC 2+ goals
73%
Cliftonville FC 3+ goals
48%
Newington Youth 1+ goals
72%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
37%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cliftonville FC (draw refunded)
79%
Newington Youth (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cliftonville FC at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Newington Youth away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cliftonville FC attack 2.83 + Newington Youth defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.62

Newington Youth attack 1.40 + Cliftonville FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cliftonville FC scores more
66%
level
17%
Newington Youth scores more
17%

Cliftonville FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cliftonville FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Cliftonville
Newington
Jim Magilton
Manager: Jim Magilton
P. Hamilton
Manager: P. Hamilton

Friendlies Clubs: Cliftonville FC 1–0 Newington Youth

Cliftonville FC beat Newington Youth 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.