Cliftonville FC 1–5 Hibernian: Result & Stats

Cliftonville FC

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Hibernian

7/4/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cliftonville FC58%

×Draw19%

Hibernian23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cliftonville FCExpected goals in this matchHibernian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.52

Cliftonville FC

2.49

Hibernian

1.52

Cliftonville FC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.83

creates per match

1.86

1.17

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Cliftonville FC

2.83

Hibernian

1.86

allows per match

Cliftonville FC

1.17

Hibernian

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cliftonville FC+0.00on par

Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cliftonville FC ↓

Hibernian →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Cliftonville FC or draw

77%

Cliftonville FC or Hibernian

81%

Draw or Hibernian

42%

Winning margin

Cliftonville FC wins by 2+

37%

Hibernian wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cliftonville FC 1+ goals

92%

Cliftonville FC 2+ goals

71%

Cliftonville FC 3+ goals

45%

Hibernian 1+ goals

78%

Hibernian 2+ goals

45%

Hibernian 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Cliftonville FC (draw refunded)

72%

Hibernian (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cliftonville FC at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cliftonville FC attack 2.83 + Hibernian defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.49

Hibernian attack 1.86 + Cliftonville FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cliftonville FC scores more

58%

level

19%

Hibernian scores more

23%

Cliftonville FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cliftonville FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Cliftonville

Hibernian

Manager: Jim Magilton

Manager: David Gray