Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Banbridge Town vs Portstewart — Premier Intermediate League 2017

Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
FT
3 – 0
Portstewart
Portstewart
12/30/2017Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 12Crystal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Banbridge Town46%
×Draw23%
Portstewart32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banbridge Town
1.82
Portstewart
1.48

Banbridge Town creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Banbridge Town
1.92
Portstewart
1.45

allows per match

Banbridge Town
1.50
Portstewart
1.73

finishing

Banbridge Town+0.00on par
Portstewart+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banbridge Town ↓

Portstewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Banbridge Town or draw
68%
Banbridge Town or Portstewart
77%
Draw or Portstewart
54%

Winning margin

Banbridge Town wins by 2+
25%
Portstewart wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Banbridge Town 1+ goals
84%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
54%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
27%
Portstewart 1+ goals
77%
Portstewart 2+ goals
43%
Portstewart 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
59%
Portstewart (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banbridge Town at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Portstewart away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banbridge Town attack 1.92 + Portstewart defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.82

Portstewart attack 1.45 + Banbridge Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Banbridge Town scores more
46%
level
23%
Portstewart scores more
32%

Banbridge Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Banbridge Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Intermediate League: Banbridge Town 3–0 Portstewart

Banbridge Town beat Portstewart 3-0 in Premier Intermediate League on December 30, 2017.

The match was played at Crystal Park in Banbridge.