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Lisburn Distillery vs Newington Youth — Premier Intermediate League 2018

Lisburn Distillery
Lisburn Distillery
FT
1 – 1
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
9/1/2018Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 2New Grosvenor Stadium (Ballyskeagh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lisburn Distillery27%
×Draw23%
Newington Youth50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lisburn Distillery
1.27
Newington Youth
1.79

Newington Youth creates 41% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

creates per match

Lisburn Distillery
1.04
Newington Youth
1.88

allows per match

Lisburn Distillery
1.70
Newington Youth
1.50

finishing

Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par
Newington Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Distillery ↓

Newington Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lisburn Distillery or draw
50%
Lisburn Distillery or Newington Youth
77%
Draw or Newington Youth
73%

Winning margin

Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+
11%
Newington Youth wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals
72%
Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals
36%
Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals
14%
Newington Youth 1+ goals
83%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
53%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)
35%
Newington Youth (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Distillery at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Newington Youth away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.04 + Newington Youth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Newington Youth attack 1.88 + Lisburn Distillery defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lisburn Distillery scores more
27%
level
23%
Newington Youth scores more
50%

Newington Youth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Intermediate League: Lisburn Distillery 1–1 Newington Youth

Lisburn Distillery and Newington Youth drew 1-1 in Premier Intermediate League on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at New Grosvenor Stadium (Ballyskeagh).