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Newington Youth vs Lisburn Distillery — League #561 2026

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
CANC
00:00
Lisburn Distillery
Lisburn Distillery
4/11/2020League #561League #561 · Round 21Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Newington Youth41%
×Draw22%
Lisburn Distillery37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newington Youth
1.88
Lisburn Distillery
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

creates per match

Newington Youth
1.80
Lisburn Distillery
1.90

allows per match

Newington Youth
1.67
Lisburn Distillery
1.95

finishing

Newington Youth+0.00on par
Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newington Youth ↓

Lisburn Distillery →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Newington Youth or draw
63%
Newington Youth or Lisburn Distillery
78%
Draw or Lisburn Distillery
59%

Winning margin

Newington Youth wins by 2+
22%
Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Newington Youth 1+ goals
85%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
56%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
29%
Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals
83%
Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals
53%
Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Newington Youth (draw refunded)
53%
Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newington Youth at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Lisburn Distillery away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newington Youth attack 1.80 + Lisburn Distillery defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.88

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.90 + Newington Youth defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Newington Youth scores more
41%
level
22%
Lisburn Distillery scores more
37%

Newington Youth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Newington Youth face Lisburn Distillery (League #561)

League #561 returns with Newington Youth hosting Lisburn Distillery. Match starts April 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Newington Youth host Lisburn Distillery at Seaview.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.