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Lisburn Distillery vs Portstewart — Premier Intermediate League 2019

Lisburn Distillery
Lisburn Distillery
FT
2 – 2
Portstewart
Portstewart
9/21/2019Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 4New Grosvenor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lisburn Distillery29%
×Draw24%
Portstewart47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lisburn Distillery
1.27
Portstewart
1.68

Portstewart creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lisburn Distillery
1.00
Portstewart
1.30

allows per match

Lisburn Distillery
2.06
Portstewart
1.55

finishing

Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par
Portstewart+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Distillery ↓

Portstewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lisburn Distillery or draw
53%
Lisburn Distillery or Portstewart
76%
Draw or Portstewart
71%

Winning margin

Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+
12%
Portstewart wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals
72%
Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals
36%
Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals
14%
Portstewart 1+ goals
81%
Portstewart 2+ goals
50%
Portstewart 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)
38%
Portstewart (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Distillery at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Portstewart away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.00 + Portstewart defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Portstewart attack 1.30 + Lisburn Distillery defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lisburn Distillery scores more
29%
level
24%
Portstewart scores more
47%

Portstewart at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portstewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lisburn Distillery vs Portstewart

Lisburn Distillery and Portstewart drew 2-2 in Premier Intermediate League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at New Grosvenor Stadium in Ballyskeagh.