Regar-TadAZ 0–3 Panjsher: Result & Stats

Regar-TadAZ

FT

0 – 3

Panjsher

9/18/2019

Vysshaya Liga · Round 15TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Regar-TadAZ57%

×Draw24%

Panjsher19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Regar-TadAZExpected goals in this matchPanjsher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.90

Regar-TadAZ

1.73

Panjsher

0.90

Regar-TadAZ creates 92% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 20 away

1.55

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ

1.55

Panjsher

0.80

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ

1.00

Panjsher

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Panjsher+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Panjsher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw

81%

Regar-TadAZ or Panjsher

76%

Draw or Panjsher

43%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

32%

Panjsher wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

82%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

52%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

25%

Panjsher 1+ goals

59%

Panjsher 2+ goals

23%

Panjsher 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

75%

Panjsher (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

Panjsher away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.55 + Panjsher defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Panjsher attack 0.80 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more

57%

level

24%

Panjsher scores more

19%

Regar-TadAZ at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff