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Barki Tajik vs Panjsher — Vysshaya Liga 2017

Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
FT
0 – 1
Panjsher
Panjsher
4/29/2017Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 8Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Barki Tajik48%
×Draw28%
Panjsher24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barki Tajik
1.35
Panjsher
0.86

Barki Tajik creates 57% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

creates per match

Barki Tajik
0.89
Panjsher
0.73

allows per match

Barki Tajik
1.00
Panjsher
1.82

finishing

Barki Tajik+0.00on par
Panjsher+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barki Tajik ↓

Panjsher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Barki Tajik or draw
76%
Barki Tajik or Panjsher
72%
Draw or Panjsher
52%

Winning margin

Barki Tajik wins by 2+
23%
Panjsher wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Barki Tajik 1+ goals
74%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
39%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
15%
Panjsher 1+ goals
58%
Panjsher 2+ goals
21%
Panjsher 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
67%
Panjsher (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barki Tajik at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Panjsher away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barki Tajik attack 0.89 + Panjsher defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Panjsher attack 0.73 + Barki Tajik defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Barki Tajik scores more
48%
level
28%
Panjsher scores more
24%

Barki Tajik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Barki Tajik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Barki Tajik 0–1 Panjsher

Panjsher beat Barki Tajik 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on April 29, 2017.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.