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Panjsher vs Barki Tajik — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Panjsher
Panjsher
FT
2 – 1
Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
11/7/2018Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 20Stadion Central'nyj im. Uktama Mamatova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Panjsher26%
×Draw24%
Barki Tajik49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panjsher
1.15
Barki Tajik
1.66

Barki Tajik creates 44% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

Panjsher
0.93
Barki Tajik
1.25

allows per match

Panjsher
2.07
Barki Tajik
1.36

finishing

Panjsher+0.00on par
Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panjsher ↓

Barki Tajik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Panjsher or draw
51%
Panjsher or Barki Tajik
76%
Draw or Barki Tajik
74%

Winning margin

Panjsher wins by 2+
10%
Barki Tajik wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Panjsher 1+ goals
68%
Panjsher 2+ goals
32%
Panjsher 3+ goals
11%
Barki Tajik 1+ goals
81%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
49%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Panjsher (draw refunded)
35%
Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panjsher at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 27 matches

Barki Tajik away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panjsher attack 0.93 + Barki Tajik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Barki Tajik attack 1.25 + Panjsher defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Panjsher scores more
26%
level
24%
Barki Tajik scores more
49%

Barki Tajik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barki Tajik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Panjsher 2–1 Barki Tajik

Panjsher beat Barki Tajik 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on November 7, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. Uktama Mamatova in Kolkhozabad.