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Armagh City vs Queen's University — Premier Intermediate League 2017

Armagh City
Armagh City
FT
0 – 2
Queen's University
Queen's University
9/16/2017Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 5Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Armagh City30%
×Draw24%
Queen's University47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armagh City
1.33
Queen's University
1.72

Queen's University creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Armagh City
1.88
Queen's University
1.56

allows per match

Armagh City
1.88
Queen's University
0.78

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par
Queen's University+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Queen's University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw
53%
Armagh City or Queen's University
76%
Draw or Queen's University
70%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+
13%
Queen's University wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals
74%
Armagh City 2+ goals
38%
Armagh City 3+ goals
15%
Queen's University 1+ goals
82%
Queen's University 2+ goals
51%
Queen's University 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)
39%
Queen's University (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Queen's University away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.88 + Queen's University defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.33

Queen's University attack 1.56 + Armagh City defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Armagh City scores more
30%
level
24%
Queen's University scores more
47%

Queen's University at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Queen's University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Intermediate League: Armagh City 0–2 Queen's University

Queen's University beat Armagh City 2-0 in Premier Intermediate League on September 16, 2017.

The match was played at Holm Park in Armagh.