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Dundela vs Banbridge Town — League #561 2026

Dundela
Dundela
FT
0 – 3
Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
4/14/2018League #561League #561 · Round 19Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dundela58%
×Draw18%
Banbridge Town25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundela
2.88
Banbridge Town
1.88

Dundela creates 53% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dundela
2.86
Banbridge Town
1.61

allows per match

Dundela
2.14
Banbridge Town
2.89

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par
Banbridge Town+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Banbridge Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Dundela or draw
75%
Dundela or Banbridge Town
82%
Draw or Banbridge Town
42%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+
38%
Banbridge Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals
94%
Dundela 2+ goals
78%
Dundela 3+ goals
54%
Banbridge Town 1+ goals
85%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
56%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)
70%
Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 2.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Banbridge Town away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 2.86 + Banbridge Town defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.88

Banbridge Town attack 1.61 + Dundela defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dundela scores more
58%
level
18%
Banbridge Town scores more
25%

Dundela at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dundela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dundela vs Banbridge Town

Banbridge Town beat Dundela 3-0 in League #561 on April 14, 2018.

The match was played at Wilgar Park in Belfast.