Kanazawa 1–1 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats

Kanazawa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kyoto Sanga

M. Yamazaki 58'

S. Escudero 14'

6/4/2016

J2 League · Round 16Ishikawa Seibu Ryokuchi Stadium (Kanazawa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Kanazawa32%

×Draw28%

Kyoto Sanga40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KanazawaExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.25

Kanazawa

1.10

Kyoto Sanga

1.25

Kyoto Sanga creates 14% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 86 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

1.34

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Kanazawa

1.14

Kyoto Sanga

1.15

allows per match

Kanazawa

1.34

Kyoto Sanga

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanazawa ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kanazawa or draw

60%

Kanazawa or Kyoto Sanga

72%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

68%

Winning margin

Kanazawa wins by 2+

13%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kanazawa 1+ goals

67%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

30%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

10%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

71%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

36%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

45%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanazawa at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.34 · 122 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.07 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanazawa attack 1.14 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.15 + Kanazawa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kanazawa scores more

32%

level

28%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

40%

Kyoto Sanga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

S. Escudero

58'

M. Yamazaki

74'

M. Kaneko← M. Yamazaki

76'

K. Arita← Yong-Jae Lee

78'

H. Furuta← Y. Otsuki

85'

Daniel Lovinho← S. Escudero

90'

Byong-Jun An← S. Mizunaga

90'

D. Numa← Y. Horigome