Gamba Osaka 1–0 Shonan Bellmare: Result & Stats

Gamba Osaka

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shonan Bellmare

S. Kurata 9'

8/30/2015

J1 League · 2nd Stage - 9Expo '70 Commemorative Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Gamba Osaka46%

×Draw27%

Shonan Bellmare27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamba OsakaExpected goals in this matchShonan Bellmare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.04

Gamba Osaka

1.43

Shonan Bellmare

1.04

Gamba Osaka creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.37

creates per match

1.06

1.02

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Gamba Osaka

1.37

Shonan Bellmare

1.06

allows per match

Gamba Osaka

1.02

Shonan Bellmare

1.49

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.18scores more

Shonan Bellmare-0.42scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Shonan Bellmare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw

73%

Gamba Osaka or Shonan Bellmare

73%

Draw or Shonan Bellmare

54%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

22%

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

76%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

42%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

17%

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

65%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

28%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

63%

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.02 · 11 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.37 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.06 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more

46%

level

27%

Shonan Bellmare scores more

27%

Gamba Osaka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

S. Kurata

62'

Y. Fujita← D. Kikuchi

62'

M. Kani← S. Otsuki

74'

Y. Ideguchi← S. Kurata

76'

H. Abe← Patric

77'

Naoki Yamada← T. Ishikawa

83'

Jung-Ya Kim← K. Omori

Gamba

Shonan

1

4

3

17

10

▼

5

6

2

16

▼

Ishikawa

23

Takayama

19

▼

1

15

8

14

5

4

7

11

⚽

▼

Kurata

19

▼

Omori

39

Usami

29

▼

Patric

74'▲Y. Ideguchi←▼S. Kurata

76'▲H. Abe←▼Patric

83'▲Jung-Ya Kim←▼K. Omori

Gamba Osaka substitutes

21Ideguchi13Abe6Kim9Lins17Myojin18Fujigaya24Akamine

62'▲Y. Fujita←▼D. Kikuchi

62'▲M. Kani←▼S. Otsuki

77'▲Naoki Yamada←▼T. Ishikawa

Shonan Bellmare substitutes

11Fujita26Kani8Yamada15Kim18Alison20Tsuboi25Lee