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Consadole Sapporo vs FC Gifu — J2 League 2018

Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FC Gifu
FC Gifu
Y. Uchimura 84', 32'
Julinho 75', 24', 8'
7/25/2016J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 25Sapporo Dome (Sapporo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Consadole Sapporo52%
×Draw25%
FC Gifu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Consadole Sapporo
1.65
FC Gifu
1.03

Consadole Sapporo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 40 away

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.48
FC Gifu
0.82

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.24
FC Gifu
1.82

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par
FC Gifu+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

FC Gifu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw
76%
Consadole Sapporo or FC Gifu
75%
Draw or FC Gifu
48%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
28%
FC Gifu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
81%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
49%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
23%
FC Gifu 1+ goals
64%
FC Gifu 2+ goals
28%
FC Gifu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
69%
FC Gifu (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

FC Gifu away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.48 + FC Gifu defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

FC Gifu attack 0.82 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more
52%
level
25%
FC Gifu scores more
24%

Consadole Sapporo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Julinho
24'
Julinho
32'
Y. Uchimura
52'
R. Takiya← B. Suzuki
62'
S. Nakahara← K. Uesato
62'
T. Tanaka← K. Kazama
72'
S. Ono← K. Tokura
75'
Julinho
83'
N. Okane← K. Takachi
84'
Y. Uchimura
85'
Y. Kanda← Y. Uchimura

J2 League: Consadole Sapporo 5–0 FC Gifu

Consadole Sapporo beat FC Gifu 5-0 in J2 League on July 25, 2016.

Goals: Julinho (8', 24', 75'), Y. Uchimura (32', 84').

The match was played at Sapporo Dome (Sapporo).