Clermont Foot 0–1 Martigues: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Martigues

10/25/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Gabriel-Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Clermont Foot51%

×Draw26%

Martigues23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchMartigues

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.94

Clermont Foot

1.52

Martigues

0.94

Clermont Foot creates 62% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 17 away

1.34

creates per match

0.94

0.93

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.34

Martigues

0.94

allows per match

Clermont Foot

0.93

Martigues

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Martigues+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Martigues →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

77%

Clermont Foot or Martigues

74%

Draw or Martigues

49%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

26%

Martigues wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

78%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

45%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

20%

Martigues 1+ goals

61%

Martigues 2+ goals

24%

Martigues 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

68%

Martigues (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Martigues away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.34 + Martigues defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Martigues attack 0.94 + Clermont Foot defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

51%

level

26%

Martigues scores more

23%

Clermont Foot at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff