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Clemency vs Jeunesse Schieren — Cup 2020

Clemency
Clemency
FT
1 – 3
Jeunesse Schieren
Jeunesse Schieren
9/9/2020CupCup · 1st RoundTerrain rue de la Gare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Clemency11%
×Draw12%
Jeunesse Schieren77%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clemency
1.42
Jeunesse Schieren
3.67

Jeunesse Schieren creates 158% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Clemency
1.50
Jeunesse Schieren
3.67

allows per match

Clemency
3.67
Jeunesse Schieren
1.33

finishing

Clemency+0.00on par
Jeunesse Schieren+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clemency ↓

Jeunesse Schieren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Clemency or draw
23%
Clemency or Jeunesse Schieren
88%
Draw or Jeunesse Schieren
89%

Winning margin

Clemency wins by 2+
4%
Jeunesse Schieren wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Clemency 1+ goals
76%
Clemency 2+ goals
41%
Clemency 3+ goals
17%
Jeunesse Schieren 1+ goals
97%
Jeunesse Schieren 2+ goals
87%
Jeunesse Schieren 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Clemency (draw refunded)
13%
Jeunesse Schieren (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clemency at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.67 · 6 matches

Jeunesse Schieren away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clemency attack 1.50 + Jeunesse Schieren defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Jeunesse Schieren attack 3.67 + Clemency defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Clemency scores more
11%
level
12%
Jeunesse Schieren scores more
77%

Jeunesse Schieren at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Jeunesse Schieren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Clemency 1–3 Jeunesse Schieren

Jeunesse Schieren beat Clemency 3-1 in Cup on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Terrain rue de la Gare in Clemency.