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Clemency vs Colmarberg — Cup 2020

Clemency
Clemency
FT
4 – 3
Colmarberg
Colmarberg
9/11/2022CupCup · 1st RoundTerrain rue de la Gare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Clemency33%
×Draw17%
Colmarberg49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clemency
2.88
Colmarberg
3.46

Colmarberg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Clemency
1.50
Colmarberg
3.25

allows per match

Clemency
3.67
Colmarberg
4.25

finishing

Clemency+0.00on par
Colmarberg+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%Yes
  • Yes91
  • No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clemency ↓

Colmarberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
86%14%4.5
73%27%

Double chance

Clemency or draw
51%
Clemency or Colmarberg
83%
Draw or Colmarberg
67%

Winning margin

Clemency wins by 2+
19%
Colmarberg wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Clemency 1+ goals
94%
Clemency 2+ goals
78%
Clemency 3+ goals
54%
Colmarberg 1+ goals
97%
Colmarberg 2+ goals
85%
Colmarberg 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Clemency (draw refunded)
40%
Colmarberg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
89%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clemency at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.67 · 6 matches

Colmarberg away — creates 3.25, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clemency attack 1.50 + Colmarberg defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.88

Colmarberg attack 3.25 + Clemency defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Clemency scores more
33%
level
17%
Colmarberg scores more
49%

Colmarberg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colmarberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Clemency vs Colmarberg

Clemency beat Colmarberg 4-3 in Cup on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Terrain rue de la Gare in Clemency.