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Claypole vs Victoriano Arenas — Primera C 2026

Claypole
Claypole
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Victoriano Arenas
Victoriano Arenas
2/27/2023Primera CPrimera C · Round 5Estadio Gildo Francisco Ghersinich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Claypole49%
×Draw28%
Victoriano Arenas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Claypole
1.38
Victoriano Arenas
0.88

Claypole creates 57% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 136 away

creates per match

Claypole
1.19
Victoriano Arenas
0.84

allows per match

Claypole
0.91
Victoriano Arenas
1.56

finishing

Claypole+0.00on par
Victoriano Arenas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Claypole ↓

Victoriano Arenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Claypole or draw
76%
Claypole or Victoriano Arenas
72%
Draw or Victoriano Arenas
51%

Winning margin

Claypole wins by 2+
23%
Victoriano Arenas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Claypole 1+ goals
75%
Claypole 2+ goals
40%
Claypole 3+ goals
16%
Victoriano Arenas 1+ goals
59%
Victoriano Arenas 2+ goals
22%
Victoriano Arenas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Claypole (draw refunded)
67%
Victoriano Arenas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Claypole at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Victoriano Arenas away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Claypole attack 1.19 + Victoriano Arenas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Victoriano Arenas attack 0.84 + Claypole defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Claypole scores more
49%
level
28%
Victoriano Arenas scores more
24%

Claypole at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Claypole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Claypole vs Victoriano Arenas

Claypole beat Victoriano Arenas 2-0 in Primera C on February 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gildo Francisco Ghersinich in Gerli, Provincia de Buenos Aires.