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Claypole vs Leandro N. Alem — Primera C 2026

Claypole
Claypole
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Leandro N. Alem
Leandro N. Alem
2/19/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 3Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Claypole45%
×Draw29%
Leandro N. Alem26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Claypole
1.23
Leandro N. Alem
0.86

Claypole creates 43% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 138 away

creates per match

Claypole
1.19
Leandro N. Alem
0.82

allows per match

Claypole
0.91
Leandro N. Alem
1.28

finishing

Claypole+0.00on par
Leandro N. Alem+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Claypole ↓

Leandro N. Alem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Claypole or draw
74%
Claypole or Leandro N. Alem
71%
Draw or Leandro N. Alem
55%

Winning margin

Claypole wins by 2+
20%
Leandro N. Alem wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Claypole 1+ goals
71%
Claypole 2+ goals
35%
Claypole 3+ goals
13%
Leandro N. Alem 1+ goals
58%
Leandro N. Alem 2+ goals
21%
Leandro N. Alem 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Claypole (draw refunded)
63%
Leandro N. Alem (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Claypole at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Leandro N. Alem away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Claypole attack 1.19 + Leandro N. Alem defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Leandro N. Alem attack 0.82 + Claypole defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Claypole scores more
45%
level
29%
Leandro N. Alem scores more
26%

Claypole at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Claypole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Claypole vs Leandro N. Alem

Leandro N. Alem beat Claypole 2-0 in Primera C on February 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla in Almirante Brown, Provincia de Buenos Aires.