Claypole 2–1 Juventud Unida: Result & Stats

Claypole

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Juventud Unida

6/30/2024

Primera C · Apertura - 25Estadio Rodolfo Vicente Capocasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Claypole43%

×Draw31%

Juventud Unida27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClaypoleExpected goals in this matchJuventud Unida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.83

Claypole

1.14

Juventud Unida

0.83

Claypole creates 37% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 46 away

1.19

creates per match

0.76

0.91

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Claypole

1.19

Juventud Unida

0.76

allows per match

Claypole

0.91

Juventud Unida

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Claypole+0.00on par

Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Claypole ↓

Juventud Unida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Claypole or draw

73%

Claypole or Juventud Unida

69%

Draw or Juventud Unida

57%

Winning margin

Claypole wins by 2+

18%

Juventud Unida wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Claypole 1+ goals

68%

Claypole 2+ goals

32%

Claypole 3+ goals

11%

Juventud Unida 1+ goals

56%

Juventud Unida 2+ goals

20%

Juventud Unida 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Claypole (draw refunded)

62%

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Claypole at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Juventud Unida away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Claypole attack 1.19 + Juventud Unida defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Juventud Unida attack 0.76 + Claypole defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Claypole scores more

43%

level

31%

Juventud Unida scores more

27%

Claypole at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Claypole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff