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Claravallis Clervaux vs Syra Mensdorf — Cup 2020

Claravallis Clervaux
Claravallis Clervaux
FT
0 – 5
Syra Mensdorf
Syra Mensdorf
9/12/2021CupCup · 1st RoundStade Aloyse Meyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Claravallis Clervaux4%
×Draw9%
Syra Mensdorf87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Claravallis Clervaux
0.63
Syra Mensdorf
3.38

Syra Mensdorf creates 437% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Claravallis Clervaux
0.75
Syra Mensdorf
3.50

allows per match

Claravallis Clervaux
3.25
Syra Mensdorf
0.50

finishing

Claravallis Clervaux+0.00on par
Syra Mensdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Claravallis Clervaux ↓

Syra Mensdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–211%
0–312%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Claravallis Clervaux or draw
13%
Claravallis Clervaux or Syra Mensdorf
91%
Draw or Syra Mensdorf
96%

Winning margin

Claravallis Clervaux wins by 2+
1%
Syra Mensdorf wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

Claravallis Clervaux 1+ goals
47%
Claravallis Clervaux 2+ goals
13%
Claravallis Clervaux 3+ goals
3%
Syra Mensdorf 1+ goals
96%
Syra Mensdorf 2+ goals
84%
Syra Mensdorf 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Claravallis Clervaux (draw refunded)
4%
Syra Mensdorf (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Claravallis Clervaux at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Syra Mensdorf away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Claravallis Clervaux attack 0.75 + Syra Mensdorf defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Syra Mensdorf attack 3.50 + Claravallis Clervaux defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Claravallis Clervaux scores more
4%
level
9%
Syra Mensdorf scores more
87%

Syra Mensdorf at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Syra Mensdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Claravallis Clervaux vs Syra Mensdorf

Syra Mensdorf beat Claravallis Clervaux 5-0 in Cup on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Aloyse Meyer in Clervaux.