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Claravallis Clervaux vs Noertzange — Cup 2020

Claravallis Clervaux
Claravallis Clervaux
FT
2 – 3
Noertzange
Noertzange
9/9/2020CupCup · 1st RoundTerrain de Reuler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Claravallis Clervaux45%
×Draw19%
Noertzange36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Claravallis Clervaux
2.54
Noertzange
2.29

Claravallis Clervaux creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Claravallis Clervaux
0.75
Noertzange
1.33

allows per match

Claravallis Clervaux
3.25
Noertzange
4.33

finishing

Claravallis Clervaux+0.00on par
Noertzange+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Claravallis Clervaux ↓

Noertzange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Claravallis Clervaux or draw
64%
Claravallis Clervaux or Noertzange
81%
Draw or Noertzange
55%

Winning margin

Claravallis Clervaux wins by 2+
27%
Noertzange wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Claravallis Clervaux 1+ goals
92%
Claravallis Clervaux 2+ goals
72%
Claravallis Clervaux 3+ goals
46%
Noertzange 1+ goals
90%
Noertzange 2+ goals
66%
Noertzange 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Claravallis Clervaux (draw refunded)
55%
Noertzange (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Claravallis Clervaux at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Noertzange away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Claravallis Clervaux attack 0.75 + Noertzange defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Noertzange attack 1.33 + Claravallis Clervaux defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Claravallis Clervaux scores more
45%
level
19%
Noertzange scores more
36%

Claravallis Clervaux at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Claravallis Clervaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Claravallis Clervaux vs Noertzange

Noertzange beat Claravallis Clervaux 3-2 in Cup on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Terrain de Reuler in Reuler.