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Clan Juvenil vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Clan Juvenil
Clan Juvenil
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
10/28/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 39Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Clan Juvenil26%
×Draw27%
Mushuc Runa SC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clan Juvenil
0.99
Mushuc Runa SC
1.42

Mushuc Runa SC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 22 away

creates per match

Clan Juvenil
0.80
Mushuc Runa SC
1.36

allows per match

Clan Juvenil
1.48
Mushuc Runa SC
1.18

finishing

Clan Juvenil+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clan Juvenil ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Clan Juvenil or draw
53%
Clan Juvenil or Mushuc Runa SC
73%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
74%

Winning margin

Clan Juvenil wins by 2+
9%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Clan Juvenil 1+ goals
63%
Clan Juvenil 2+ goals
26%
Clan Juvenil 3+ goals
8%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
76%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
41%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)
36%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clan Juvenil at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clan Juvenil attack 0.80 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.36 + Clan Juvenil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Clan Juvenil scores more
26%
level
27%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
47%

Mushuc Runa SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Clan Juvenil 0 – 1 Mushuc Runa SC

Mushuc Runa SC beat Clan Juvenil 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí).