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Clan Juvenil vs LDU Loja — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Clan Juvenil
Clan Juvenil
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
LDU Loja
LDU Loja
10/30/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 33Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Clan Juvenil41%
×Draw28%
LDU Loja31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clan Juvenil
1.25
LDU Loja
1.04

Clan Juvenil creates 20% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

Clan Juvenil
0.80
LDU Loja
0.60

allows per match

Clan Juvenil
1.48
LDU Loja
1.70

finishing

Clan Juvenil+0.00on par
LDU Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clan Juvenil ↓

LDU Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Clan Juvenil or draw
69%
Clan Juvenil or LDU Loja
72%
Draw or LDU Loja
59%

Winning margin

Clan Juvenil wins by 2+
18%
LDU Loja wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Clan Juvenil 1+ goals
71%
Clan Juvenil 2+ goals
36%
Clan Juvenil 3+ goals
13%
LDU Loja 1+ goals
65%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
28%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)
57%
LDU Loja (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clan Juvenil at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

LDU Loja away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clan Juvenil attack 0.80 + LDU Loja defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.25

LDU Loja attack 0.60 + Clan Juvenil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Clan Juvenil scores more
41%
level
28%
LDU Loja scores more
31%

Clan Juvenil at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Clan Juvenil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Clan Juvenil vs LDU Loja

LDU Loja beat Clan Juvenil 3-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí).