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Clan Juvenil vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Clan Juvenil
Clan Juvenil
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
3/16/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 3Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Clan Juvenil34%
×Draw29%
Gualaceo SC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clan Juvenil
1.08
Gualaceo SC
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 110 away

creates per match

Clan Juvenil
0.80
Gualaceo SC
0.82

allows per match

Clan Juvenil
1.48
Gualaceo SC
1.35

finishing

Clan Juvenil+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clan Juvenil ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Clan Juvenil or draw
63%
Clan Juvenil or Gualaceo SC
71%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
66%

Winning margin

Clan Juvenil wins by 2+
13%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Clan Juvenil 1+ goals
66%
Clan Juvenil 2+ goals
29%
Clan Juvenil 3+ goals
10%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
68%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
32%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)
48%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clan Juvenil at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clan Juvenil attack 0.80 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Gualaceo SC attack 0.82 + Clan Juvenil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Clan Juvenil scores more
34%
level
29%
Gualaceo SC scores more
37%

Gualaceo SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Clan Juvenil vs Gualaceo SC

Gualaceo SC beat Clan Juvenil 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí).