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Clan Juvenil vs Duros del Balon — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Clan Juvenil
Clan Juvenil
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Duros del Balon
Duros del Balon
4/28/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 8Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Clan Juvenil35%
×Draw28%
Duros del Balon37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clan Juvenil
1.17
Duros del Balon
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 45 away

creates per match

Clan Juvenil
0.80
Duros del Balon
0.96

allows per match

Clan Juvenil
1.48
Duros del Balon
1.53

finishing

Clan Juvenil+0.00on par
Duros del Balon+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clan Juvenil ↓

Duros del Balon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Clan Juvenil or draw
63%
Clan Juvenil or Duros del Balon
72%
Draw or Duros del Balon
65%

Winning margin

Clan Juvenil wins by 2+
14%
Duros del Balon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Clan Juvenil 1+ goals
69%
Clan Juvenil 2+ goals
33%
Clan Juvenil 3+ goals
11%
Duros del Balon 1+ goals
70%
Duros del Balon 2+ goals
34%
Duros del Balon 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)
48%
Duros del Balon (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clan Juvenil at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

Duros del Balon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clan Juvenil attack 0.80 + Duros del Balon defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Duros del Balon attack 0.96 + Clan Juvenil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Clan Juvenil scores more
35%
level
28%
Duros del Balon scores more
37%

Duros del Balon at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Duros del Balon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Clan Juvenil 0–1 Duros del Balon

Duros del Balon beat Clan Juvenil 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí).