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Clan Juvenil vs CD Olmedo — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Clan Juvenil
Clan Juvenil
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
5/5/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 11Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Clan Juvenil28%
×Draw29%
CD Olmedo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clan Juvenil
0.94
CD Olmedo
1.25

CD Olmedo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 42 away

creates per match

Clan Juvenil
0.80
CD Olmedo
1.02

allows per match

Clan Juvenil
1.48
CD Olmedo
1.07

finishing

Clan Juvenil+0.00on par
CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clan Juvenil ↓

CD Olmedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Clan Juvenil or draw
57%
Clan Juvenil or CD Olmedo
71%
Draw or CD Olmedo
72%

Winning margin

Clan Juvenil wins by 2+
10%
CD Olmedo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Clan Juvenil 1+ goals
61%
Clan Juvenil 2+ goals
24%
Clan Juvenil 3+ goals
7%
CD Olmedo 1+ goals
71%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
36%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)
39%
CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clan Juvenil at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clan Juvenil attack 0.80 + CD Olmedo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

CD Olmedo attack 1.02 + Clan Juvenil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Clan Juvenil scores more
28%
level
29%
CD Olmedo scores more
43%

CD Olmedo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Clan Juvenil 1 – 1 CD Olmedo

Clan Juvenil and CD Olmedo drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 5, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí).