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Clachnacuddin vs Kilwinning Rangers — FA Cup 2019

Clachnacuddin
Clachnacuddin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kilwinning Rangers
Kilwinning Rangers
9/27/2025FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundGrant Street Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Clachnacuddin36%
×Draw22%
Kilwinning Rangers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clachnacuddin
1.75
Kilwinning Rangers
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Clachnacuddin
1.50
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00

allows per match

Clachnacuddin
1.75
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00

finishing

Clachnacuddin+0.00on par
Kilwinning Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clachnacuddin ↓

Kilwinning Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Clachnacuddin or draw
58%
Clachnacuddin or Kilwinning Rangers
78%
Draw or Kilwinning Rangers
64%

Winning margin

Clachnacuddin wins by 2+
19%
Kilwinning Rangers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Clachnacuddin 1+ goals
83%
Clachnacuddin 2+ goals
52%
Clachnacuddin 3+ goals
25%
Kilwinning Rangers 1+ goals
85%
Kilwinning Rangers 2+ goals
56%
Kilwinning Rangers 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Clachnacuddin (draw refunded)
47%
Kilwinning Rangers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clachnacuddin at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Kilwinning Rangers away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clachnacuddin attack 1.50 + Kilwinning Rangers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kilwinning Rangers attack 2.00 + Clachnacuddin defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Clachnacuddin scores more
36%
level
22%
Kilwinning Rangers scores more
42%

Kilwinning Rangers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kilwinning Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Clachnacuddin vs Kilwinning Rangers

Clachnacuddin beat Kilwinning Rangers 2-1 in FA Cup on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Grant Street Park in Inverness.