Clachnacuddin 1–0 Inverurie Loco Works

Clachnacuddin

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Inverurie Loco Works

9/23/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundGrant Street Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Clachnacuddin52%

×Draw22%

Inverurie Loco Works27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClachnacuddinExpected goals in this matchInverurie Loco Works

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.38

Clachnacuddin

2.00

Inverurie Loco Works

1.38

Clachnacuddin creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.75

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Clachnacuddin

1.50

Inverurie Loco Works

1.00

allows per match

Clachnacuddin

1.75

Inverurie Loco Works

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clachnacuddin+0.00on par

Inverurie Loco Works+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clachnacuddin ↓

Inverurie Loco Works →

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Clachnacuddin or draw

73%

Clachnacuddin or Inverurie Loco Works

78%

Draw or Inverurie Loco Works

48%

Winning margin

Clachnacuddin wins by 2+

30%

Inverurie Loco Works wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Clachnacuddin 1+ goals

86%

Clachnacuddin 2+ goals

59%

Clachnacuddin 3+ goals

32%

Inverurie Loco Works 1+ goals

75%

Inverurie Loco Works 2+ goals

40%

Inverurie Loco Works 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Clachnacuddin (draw refunded)

66%

Inverurie Loco Works (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Clachnacuddin at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Inverurie Loco Works away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Clachnacuddin attack 1.50 + Inverurie Loco Works defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Inverurie Loco Works attack 1.00 + Clachnacuddin defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Clachnacuddin scores more

52%

level

22%

Inverurie Loco Works scores more

27%

Clachnacuddin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Clachnacuddin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff