Clachnacuddin 1–2 Caledonian Braves: Result & Stats

Clachnacuddin

1 – 2

Caledonian Braves

12/12/2020

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundGrant Street Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Clachnacuddin41%

×Draw23%

Caledonian Braves36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClachnacuddinExpected goals in this matchCaledonian Braves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.54

Clachnacuddin

1.67

Caledonian Braves

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Clachnacuddin

1.50

Caledonian Braves

1.33

allows per match

Clachnacuddin

1.75

Caledonian Braves

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clachnacuddin+0.00on par

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clachnacuddin ↓

Caledonian Braves →

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Clachnacuddin or draw

64%

Clachnacuddin or Caledonian Braves

77%

Draw or Caledonian Braves

59%

Winning margin

Clachnacuddin wins by 2+

21%

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Clachnacuddin 1+ goals

81%

Clachnacuddin 2+ goals

50%

Clachnacuddin 3+ goals

23%

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals

79%

Caledonian Braves 2+ goals

45%

Caledonian Braves 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Clachnacuddin (draw refunded)

54%

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Clachnacuddin at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Caledonian Braves away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Clachnacuddin attack 1.50 + Caledonian Braves defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Caledonian Braves attack 1.33 + Clachnacuddin defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Clachnacuddin scores more

41%

level

23%

Caledonian Braves scores more

36%

Clachnacuddin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Clachnacuddin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Clachnacuddin 1–2 Caledonian Braves

Caledonian Braves beat Clachnacuddin 2-1 in FA Cup on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Grant Street Park in Inverness.

Clachnacuddin vs Caledonian Braves — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Cup: Clachnacuddin 1–2 Caledonian Braves