Clachnacuddin 0–7 Brora Rangers: Result & Stats

Clachnacuddin

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 4

Brora Rangers

Martin MacLean 83'

A. MacDonald 74', 38'

B. Wagenaar 67'

James Pickles 40'

P. Brindle 20', 17'

10/19/2019

FA Cup · 2nd RoundGrant Street Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Clachnacuddin19%

×Draw20%

Brora Rangers61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClachnacuddinExpected goals in this matchBrora Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.16

Clachnacuddin

1.10

Brora Rangers

2.16

Brora Rangers creates 96% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

2.57

1.75

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Clachnacuddin

1.50

Brora Rangers

2.57

allows per match

Clachnacuddin

1.75

Brora Rangers

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clachnacuddin+0.00on par

Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clachnacuddin ↓

Brora Rangers →

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Clachnacuddin or draw

39%

Clachnacuddin or Brora Rangers

80%

Draw or Brora Rangers

81%

Winning margin

Clachnacuddin wins by 2+

Brora Rangers wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Clachnacuddin 1+ goals

67%

Clachnacuddin 2+ goals

30%

Clachnacuddin 3+ goals

10%

Brora Rangers 1+ goals

88%

Brora Rangers 2+ goals

63%

Brora Rangers 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Clachnacuddin (draw refunded)

23%

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Clachnacuddin at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 2.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Clachnacuddin attack 1.50 + Brora Rangers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Brora Rangers attack 2.57 + Clachnacuddin defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Clachnacuddin scores more

19%

level

20%

Brora Rangers scores more

61%

Brora Rangers at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

P. Brindle↳ G. Morrison

20'

P. Brindle↳ G. Morrison

38'

A. MacDonald↳ G. Morrison

40'

James Pickles

61'

B. Wagenaar← J. Wallace

67'

B. Wagenaar↳ G. Morrison

70'

C. Bunce← J. Anderson

71'

Martin MacLean← D. Gillespie

74'

A. MacDonald

78'

S. Davidson← G. Morrison

83'

Martin MacLean

Clachnacuddin

Brora

▼

⚽2

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. McLeod

70'▲C. Bunce←▼J. Anderson

Clachnacuddin substitutes

29Bunce24Patience11Edwards13Maclennan19Lewis28Walker

Manager: S. Mackay

61'▲B. Wagenaar←▼J. Wallace

71'▲Martin MacLean←▼D. Gillespie

78'▲S. Davidson←▼G. Morrison

Brora Rangers substitutes

14Wagenaar17MacLean12Davidson15MacLeod20Counsell16MacDonald18Macrae