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Cjarlins Muzane vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
F. Furlan 11'
1/5/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 20Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane42%
×Draw28%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.31
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.05

Cjarlins Muzane creates 25% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
0.84

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.26

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
70%
Cjarlins Muzane or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
72%
Draw or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
58%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
19%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
73%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
38%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
14%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
65%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
28%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
59%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 0.84 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
42%
level
28%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
30%

Cjarlins Muzane at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
F. Furlan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cjarlins Muzane vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Cjarlins Muzane beat Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 5, 2025.

Goals: F. Furlan (11').

The match was played at Stadio Via Rizzolo in Carlino.