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Cjarlins Muzane vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
G. Nunes 38'
2/26/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 25Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane43%
×Draw27%
Virtus Bolzano29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.36
Virtus Bolzano
1.07

Cjarlins Muzane creates 27% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
71%
Cjarlins Muzane or Virtus Bolzano
73%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
57%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
20%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
74%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
39%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
16%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
66%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
29%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
60%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
43%
level
27%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
29%

Cjarlins Muzane at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
G. Nunes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cjarlins Muzane 1–0 Virtus Bolzano

Cjarlins Muzane beat Virtus Bolzano 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 26, 2023.

Goals: G. Nunes (38').

The match was played at Stadio Via Rizzolo in Carlino.