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Cjarlins Muzane vs Villafranca — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
FT
4 – 3
Villafranca
Villafranca
11/17/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 14Stadio Via Rizzolo (Carlino)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane45%
×Draw26%
Villafranca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.50
Villafranca
1.17

Cjarlins Muzane creates 28% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 30 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Villafranca
1.07

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
Villafranca
1.63

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
70%
Cjarlins Muzane or Villafranca
74%
Draw or Villafranca
55%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
22%
Villafranca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
78%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
44%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
19%
Villafranca 1+ goals
69%
Villafranca 2+ goals
33%
Villafranca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
60%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Villafranca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Villafranca attack 1.07 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
45%
level
26%
Villafranca scores more
30%

Cjarlins Muzane at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cjarlins Muzane 4–3 Villafranca

Cjarlins Muzane beat Villafranca 4-3 in Serie D - Girone C on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Via Rizzolo (Carlino).