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Cjarlins Muzane vs Treviso — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Treviso
Treviso
10/23/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 10Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane32%
×Draw26%
Treviso42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.19
Treviso
1.41

Treviso creates 18% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 53 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Treviso
1.55

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
Treviso
1.00

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
Treviso+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Treviso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
58%
Cjarlins Muzane or Treviso
74%
Draw or Treviso
68%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
13%
Treviso wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
70%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
33%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
12%
Treviso 1+ goals
76%
Treviso 2+ goals
41%
Treviso 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
43%
Treviso (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Treviso away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Treviso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Treviso attack 1.55 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
32%
level
26%
Treviso scores more
42%

Treviso at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cjarlins Muzane 0–2 Treviso

Treviso beat Cjarlins Muzane 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Via Rizzolo in Carlino.