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Cjarlins Muzane vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mestre
Mestre
9/28/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 5Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane41%
×Draw28%
Mestre32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.28
Mestre
1.10

Cjarlins Muzane creates 16% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
68%
Cjarlins Muzane or Mestre
72%
Draw or Mestre
59%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
18%
Mestre wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
72%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
37%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
14%
Mestre 1+ goals
67%
Mestre 2+ goals
30%
Mestre 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
56%
Mestre (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mestre attack 0.94 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
41%
level
28%
Mestre scores more
32%

Cjarlins Muzane at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cjarlins Muzane 1–0 Mestre

Cjarlins Muzane beat Mestre 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Via Rizzolo in Carlino.