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Cjarlins Muzane vs Este — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Este
Este
12/15/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 18Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane40%
×Draw27%
Este33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.31
Este
1.18

Cjarlins Muzane creates 11% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Este
1.09

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
Este
1.24

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
Este+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
67%
Cjarlins Muzane or Este
73%
Draw or Este
60%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
18%
Este wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
73%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
38%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
14%
Este 1+ goals
69%
Este 2+ goals
33%
Este 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
54%
Este (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Este away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Este defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Este attack 1.09 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
40%
level
27%
Este scores more
33%

Cjarlins Muzane at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cjarlins Muzane vs Este

Cjarlins Muzane beat Este 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Via Rizzolo in Carlino.