Cjarlins Muzane 2–0 Bassano Virtus: Result & Stats

Cjarlins Muzane

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bassano Virtus

4/21/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 32Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane37%

×Draw29%

Bassano Virtus34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cjarlins MuzaneExpected goals in this matchBassano Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.09

Cjarlins Muzane

1.15

Bassano Virtus

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 53 away

1.37

creates per match

0.92

1.26

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane

1.37

Bassano Virtus

0.92

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane

1.26

Bassano Virtus

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Bassano Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw

66%

Cjarlins Muzane or Bassano Virtus

71%

Draw or Bassano Virtus

63%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+

15%

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals

68%

Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals

32%

Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals

11%

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals

66%

Bassano Virtus 2+ goals

30%

Bassano Virtus 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)

52%

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more

37%

level

29%

Bassano Virtus scores more

34%

Cjarlins Muzane at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff