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CIVO United vs Mitundu Baptist — Super League 2026

CIVO United
CIVO United
Preview
12:30
Mitundu Baptist
Mitundu Baptist
11/28/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21
60%
CIVO United
model favours
60%28%11%
1–0
likely score
74%
under 2.5 goals
25%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CIVO United60%
×Draw28%
Mitundu Baptist11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CIVO United
1.35
Mitundu Baptist
0.42

CIVO United creates 221% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 4 away

creates per match

CIVO United
1.20
Mitundu Baptist
0.25

allows per match

CIVO United
0.59
Mitundu Baptist
1.50

finishing

CIVO United+0.00on par
Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CIVO United ↓

Mitundu Baptist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

CIVO United or draw
89%
CIVO United or Mitundu Baptist
72%
Draw or Mitundu Baptist
40%

Winning margin

CIVO United wins by 2+
30%
Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

CIVO United 1+ goals
74%
CIVO United 2+ goals
39%
CIVO United 3+ goals
15%
Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals
34%
Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals
7%
Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

CIVO United (draw refunded)
84%
Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CIVO United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.59 · 79 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CIVO United attack 1.20 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.25 + CIVO United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CIVO United scores more
60%
level
28%
Mitundu Baptist scores more
11%

CIVO United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
United
LWDLL
Baptist
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CIVO United face Mitundu Baptist (Super League)

Super League returns with CIVO United hosting Mitundu Baptist. Match starts November 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.