CIVO United 1–2 Kamuzu Barracks: Result & Stats

CIVO United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Kamuzu Barracks

4/28/2024

Super League · Round 3CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

CIVO United44%

×Draw31%

Kamuzu Barracks25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CIVO UnitedExpected goals in this matchKamuzu Barracks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.79

CIVO United

1.16

Kamuzu Barracks

0.79

CIVO United creates 47% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 81 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

0.59

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

CIVO United

1.20

Kamuzu Barracks

1.00

allows per match

CIVO United

0.59

Kamuzu Barracks

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CIVO United+0.00on par

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CIVO United ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CIVO United or draw

75%

CIVO United or Kamuzu Barracks

69%

Draw or Kamuzu Barracks

56%

Winning margin

CIVO United wins by 2+

19%

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CIVO United 1+ goals

69%

CIVO United 2+ goals

32%

CIVO United 3+ goals

11%

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals

55%

Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals

19%

Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CIVO United (draw refunded)

64%

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CIVO United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.59 · 79 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CIVO United attack 1.20 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + CIVO United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CIVO United scores more

44%

level

31%

Kamuzu Barracks scores more

25%

CIVO United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff