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CIVO United vs Ekwendeni Hammers — Super League 2026

CIVO United
CIVO United
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
8/3/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

CIVO United52%
×Draw28%
Ekwendeni Hammers20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CIVO United
1.39
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.74

CIVO United creates 88% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 75 away

creates per match

CIVO United
1.20
Ekwendeni Hammers
0.89

allows per match

CIVO United
0.59
Ekwendeni Hammers
1.57

finishing

CIVO United+0.00on par
Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CIVO United ↓

Ekwendeni Hammers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CIVO United or draw
80%
CIVO United or Ekwendeni Hammers
72%
Draw or Ekwendeni Hammers
48%

Winning margin

CIVO United wins by 2+
26%
Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CIVO United 1+ goals
75%
CIVO United 2+ goals
40%
CIVO United 3+ goals
16%
Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
52%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
17%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CIVO United (draw refunded)
72%
Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CIVO United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.59 · 79 matches

Ekwendeni Hammers away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.57 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CIVO United attack 1.20 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 0.89 + CIVO United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CIVO United scores more
52%
level
28%
Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
20%

CIVO United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: CIVO United 4–0 Ekwendeni Hammers

CIVO United beat Ekwendeni Hammers 4-0 in Super League on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.