CIVO United 0–1 Be Forward Wanderers

CIVO United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Be Forward Wanderers

8/23/2024

Super League · Round 14CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

CIVO United33%

×Draw32%

Be Forward Wanderers34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CIVO UnitedExpected goals in this matchBe Forward Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.93

CIVO United

0.91

Be Forward Wanderers

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 82 away

1.20

creates per match

1.26

0.59

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

CIVO United

1.20

Be Forward Wanderers

1.26

allows per match

CIVO United

0.59

Be Forward Wanderers

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CIVO United+0.00on par

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CIVO United ↓

Be Forward Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

CIVO United or draw

66%

CIVO United or Be Forward Wanderers

68%

Draw or Be Forward Wanderers

67%

Winning margin

CIVO United wins by 2+

12%

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CIVO United 1+ goals

60%

CIVO United 2+ goals

23%

CIVO United 3+ goals

6%

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals

61%

Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals

24%

Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CIVO United (draw refunded)

49%

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CIVO United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.59 · 79 matches

Be Forward Wanderers away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.61 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CIVO United attack 1.20 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.91

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.26 + CIVO United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

CIVO United scores more

33%

level

32%

Be Forward Wanderers scores more

34%

Be Forward Wanderers at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff