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Civil Sporting vs Masters Security — Super League 2026

Civil Sporting
Civil Sporting
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Masters Security
Masters Security
8/18/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Civil Sporting78%
×Draw14%
Masters Security8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Civil Sporting
2.67
Masters Security
0.75

Civil Sporting creates 256% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Civil Sporting
2.33
Masters Security
0.50

allows per match

Civil Sporting
1.00
Masters Security
3.00

finishing

Civil Sporting+0.00on par
Masters Security+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Civil Sporting ↓

Masters Security →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Civil Sporting or draw
92%
Civil Sporting or Masters Security
86%
Draw or Masters Security
22%

Winning margin

Civil Sporting wins by 2+
56%
Masters Security wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Civil Sporting 1+ goals
93%
Civil Sporting 2+ goals
74%
Civil Sporting 3+ goals
49%
Masters Security 1+ goals
53%
Masters Security 2+ goals
17%
Masters Security 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Civil Sporting (draw refunded)
90%
Masters Security (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Civil Sporting at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Masters Security away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Civil Sporting attack 2.33 + Masters Security defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Masters Security attack 0.50 + Civil Sporting defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Civil Sporting scores more
78%
level
14%
Masters Security scores more
8%

Civil Sporting at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Civil Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Civil Sporting 3–0 Masters Security

Civil Sporting beat Masters Security 3-0 in Super League on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium.